The 2022 United States midterms occurred on November 8th, 2022, with elections concluding for 35 senate seats, 36 governorships, and all 435 house seats. Full results are not yet known, as votes are still being counted in several states. Indeed, as of November 11th, 2022, it’s still unclear which party will control either chamber of Congress. However, the present results allow for three major takeaways.
Nationwide Victories for the Pro-Choice Movement
Five states held direct referendums on abortion this cycle. Montana and Kentucky gave voters the option to decrease abortion access, with those measures failing in both states despite their heavily Republican populations. Michigan, California, and Vermont on the other hand held votes on proposals to protect abortion access, with success for the pro-choice camp in all three states. These results may reflect a general support of abortion rights within the American population, with one Pew study finding that 61% of U.S. adults are in favor of legal abortion in “all or most cases” (“Public Opinion on Abortion”). It may also reflect a sense of energy and urgency amongst pro-choice voters following the Supreme Court’s decision this June to overturn Roe v. Wade, which caused a cessation of federal protections for abortion.
Trump-Endorsed Candidates Underperform Expectations
Former President Donald Trump was highly involved in this year’s elections, with over 200 endorsements in elections across the country. Some of Trump endorsed candidates, such as Ron Johnson and J.D. Vance in Wisconsin and Ohio’s respective Senate races were able to win close elections. As a whole though, Trump’s hand picked candidates in tossup races largely floundered.
In Pennsylvania’s Senate election, Trump-supported candidate and TV celebrity Mehmet Oz lost to Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman despite most polling averages suggesting he’d win the race. Meanwhile, Nevada’s Senate election is in dead heat even as most polls showed that Trump-endorsed candidate Adam Laxalt would win by a solid margin. In Georgia’s Senate race, Trump-endorsed candidate Herschel Walker received fewer votes than incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock, though Georgia’s election laws require a December runoff election since neither candidate received more than 50% of the vote.
On the House side, several high-profile races resulted in surprise Democratic victories against Trump-backed candidates. In Ohio, for example, 27-year old upstart Bo Hines lost to a Democrat in a Republican-leaning district. In Michigan, John Gibbs, who defeated an incumbent congressman that had voted to impeach Trump in a GOP primary, lost to a Democrat in a landslide.
The nationwide losses indicate declining support for Trump, a trend that’s reflected in polling. In recent days, many party leaders and media commentators have urged for the GOP to shift away from the former president.
Republicans Surge in New York and Florida
Although Tuesday’s results were mostly disappointing for the Republican Party, the GOP faced unusual success in two states. In Florida, traditionally a swing-state with extremely close elections, Republican Governor Ron DeSantis defeated well-funded Democratic challenger and former Governor Charlie Crist in a massive 20 point landslide. Republican Senator Marco Rubio was also immensely successful, with a stunning 16 point victory. These extraordinary results indicate that Florida’s status as a “purple” state may potentially come to an end, with the GOP becoming increasingly dominant.
In New York, traditionally one of the country’s most Democratic states, Republicans also found surprising success. Although incumbent Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul defeated GOP challenger Lee Zeldin, the margin was the closest in 20 years. Republicans also won in an array of competitive House elections in New York. In one of these races, Sean Patrick Maloney, Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, or in other words the person in charge of getting Democratic House candidates elected nationwide, shockingly lost his own election to a Republican challenger.
What’s Next?
The most probable outcome as of November 11th, 2022, is that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate but narrowly lose their House majority to the Republicans. This will allow Republicans to control all of the House’s committees, allowing them to launch investigations into the Biden administration. Some prominent Republicans have expressed a desire to go further and impeach the President, although it is unclear what basis exists for such action. A Republican House would also ensure that Democratic legislation could not pass without some GOP support.
The next most probable outcome is that Democrats maintain both control of the Senate and of the House. This would essentially cause the status quo to remain unchanged. Much of the Democratic Party’s agenda would still be stalled by the Senate’s filibuster rules, as even the best-case scenario of 51 Democratic Senate seats would prevent the Democratic Party from obtaining 50 votes to abolish the filibuster (Two current Democratic senators oppose abolishing the filibuster).
It seems extremely improbable at this point, but there is still a miniscule chance that Republicans obtain control of both chambers of Congress. If this happens, President Biden’s agenda would be blocked in its entirety, and it is possible that any Supreme Court vacancies would go unfilled due to Republican opposition to a Biden nominee in the Senate.
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